Super Bowl Pick
Note: Well, three out of four isn't too bad. Yet, even though I missed the outcome, you have to admit that my key points for the Giants were on target. I just didn't think they could pull them off. It appeared to me that Tom Coughlin outcoached the genius, Bill Belicheck. The Giants were far better prepared than the Patriots, and New England's staff failed to make the necessary changes to protect Brady. Now, thanks to a loss in the big game, Brady does not ascend to the level of Starr, Bradshaw and Montana, nor does the Patriot dynasty reach the level of the Packers, Steelers, 49ers, or Cowboys.
Super Bowl XLII
February 2, 2008
On paper this game has the makings of a rout. However, don't expect a repeat of San Francisco's dismantling of Denver in Super Bowl XXIV. The Giants have a chance, if they capitalize on two of their strengths. Against New England that's easier said than done.
New York's defense isn't bad; but they are facing the league's best offense, especially in the passing game. That could be the Giants' demise. While New York does bring the NFL's 7th rated defense into the game, they were only 17th in scoring defense. Furthermore, they were vulnerable to big plays in the passing game, bad news when facing Tom Brady and an air attack that topped the league in nearly every category.
On the plus side the Giants sacked more quarterbacks than anyone this season. There's a key. Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan, and Justin Tuck must get pressure on Brady. Even if they don't sack him, they must make him throw before he's ready. If they don't, Brady will torch a secondary that ranked 21st in surrendering pass plays of greater than 20 yards. As good as the Giants' line has been they face a formidable task. Only four offensive lines allowed fewer sacks than did New England's.
A second key for New York rides on the performance of their fourth ranked running game. They must use that ground game to keep the Patriot offense off the field, stay within one score going to the fourth quarter and, hopefully, wear down New England's defense. It's a tall order, but if New York can pull if off they might pull off the upset with it.
For New England, they must simply do what they've done 18 times this year. And the Patriots will be well-prepared. You can bet the farm that Bill Belichick has analyzed every frame of tape from the earlier game with New York, as well as the Giants' three playoff games (and possibly a practice or two). He's corrected the faults that allowed New York to hang 35 points on the Patriots, nearly ending the dream of perfection. Given the two weeks of preparation, Belichick's staff may know the Giants' tendencies even better than Tom Coughlin does.
With all eyes focused on New England's high-powered offense it may be the underrated Patriot defense that makes the difference. They ranked fourth in overall defense and they're good enough against the run to slow the New York ground game. New England doesn't allow big plays on the ground or through the air and was second only to the Giants in sacks. New York might bend New England's defense, but they're unlikely to break it.
The big key to this game is taking advantage of scoring opportunities. New England scored eight times in their two playoff victories. Seven of those scores were touchdowns. Their opponents also scored eight times, but only two were touchdowns. Had it not been for the Patriot defense's ability to keep Jacksonville and San Diego out of the end zone, the `72 Dolphins may have drunk their toast by now. When the Giants have a chance to score they must get six. Field goals won't keep them close enough to utilize their running game.
Somewhere around 10 PM, the Patriots will become the latest in a string of dynasties dating back to Lombardi's Packers, through the Steel Curtain and the 49ers to the Cowboys of the early `90s. Tom Brady will join the ranks of championship legends, breathing the rarified air of Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana. Csonka, Kiick and Buoniconti should get their welcoming committee together; there's a new resident on Perfection Drive.
New England Patriots 28 (14)
New York Giants 16 (17)